Kenya launches 2050 calculator to advance climate change mitigation in East Africa

Kenya’s Ministry of Energy, the British High Commission in Nairobi and Strathmore University have jointly launched the Kenya Carbon Reduction Toolkit (KCERT 2050), an energy and emissions model on measure to help Kenya achieve its climate goals.

The interactive energy model – the first in East Africa – was produced as part of the UK government’s international 2050 Calculator programme, which is funded by the UK’s International Climate Finance and led by global consultancy in Engineering, Management and Development Mott MacDonald, and a consortium that includes Imperial College London, Climact and Ricardo.

KCERT 2050 allows users to test options to reduce climate change-inducing carbon emissions at a faster rate and build a pathway that meets long-term emissions goals to 2050 and beyond. It can be used to support policy development to enable governments to scale up national action on climate change and build ambition in line with the 2015 Paris Agreement.

KCERT 2050 will play a key role in helping policy makers, energy producers and consumers, including the public, in Kenya understand the choices they make regarding energy and emissions. It also provides a platform to engage in dialogues on the challenges and opportunities of the future energy system and responses to climate change. The project gives Kenya the opportunity to pioneer climate change mitigation approaches in the East African region.

HE Jane Marriott, British High Commissioner to Kenya said:

As part of strengthening our UK-Kenya strategic partnership on climate action, the British High Commission welcomes the launch of the Kenya 2050 Carbon Emissions Reduction Tool. which is a first in East Africa, will support government departments in Kenya to design and deliver evidence-based inclusive policies on emissions reductions, energy access and energy adequacy. energy supply and demand. I look forward to Kenya acting as a pioneer in promoting the use of this innovative tool which will provide options for implementing Kenya’s emission reduction strategies and achieving net zero development pathways. by 2050.

In his address, the Principal Secretary of the Ministry of Energy, Major General (Rtd). noted Dr. Gordon Kihalangwa;

Energy is a matter of security, of development, but if we misuse it, it will affect us negatively. Kenya has complied with the Paris Agreement by submitting a revised NDC. A country like this is privileged to use renewable energy, and the tool will help us determine how to reach net zero by 2050. This 2050 KCERT will be used to support emission reductions and build resilience to climate change. climate change in the energy sector. sector in Kenya

Dr John Olukuru, Head of Data Science and Analytics at Strathmore University and KCERT Principal Modeller, said:

The Kenya Carbon Emissions Reduction Tool (KCERT) 2050 is an important data-driven policy-making tool in the area of ​​climate change. It will help every Kenyan, expert or non-expert, to engage in a well-informed debate on climate change. The calculator takes into account all sectors, stakeholder contributions and various scenarios that provide a huge volume of data and thus lays the foundation for the application of AI and machine learning to monitor and reduce emissions. carbon, streamlining operations to enable every decision-maker to recognize that climate action provides an opportunity to create value by tapping into new markets and meeting growing demand for low-carbon and greener services.

David Orr, Head of Emerging Markets Trade and Investment for Mott MacDonald and Country Program Manager for Kenya, said:

It was such a pleasure to work with the team to create the KCERT 2050 tool. Over the next few years, the tool will play a pivotal role in promoting Kenya’s net zero transition, inspiring policymakers across the country. ‘East Africa.

Dr Onesmus Mwabonje, a researcher at the Center for Environmental Policy at Imperial College London and lead member of the Kenya Consortium team, added:

KCERT will support and stimulate the debate on decarbonization in Kenya, helping to break down silos and generate the consensus among ministries needed to effectively combat, mitigate and adapt to climate change. The decision support capacity that the International 2050 Calculator program has developed on modeling complex transitions and technology options will have a lasting impact in the country and beyond.

The KCERT is available at http://kcert.ilabafrica.ac.ke/

More information

Context of the Calculator 2050 program in Kenya

  • KCERT 2050 is an integrated model of energy demand and supply, emissions and land use in Kenya. It aims to identify secure energy pathways for energy demand and supply between 2015 and 2050. It is developed on the framework of the UK 2050 calculator and was built in Kenya, by Kenyans, for Kenya.
  • In 2010 the UK government developed the original 2050 calculator for the UK; although it has a very flexible structure that can be (and has been) adapted and updated to incorporate and suit different economies. Since 2012, UK International Climate Finance has supported the creation of 19 national and 6 regional energy models, which have been used to develop NDCs and action plans, raise awareness and inform long-term energy strategies. In 2020, BEIS launched an updated 2050 calculator, the MacKay Carbon Calculator.
  • It is a unique, open, transparent and interactive energy model that allows users to explore options for reducing emissions in a city, region or country, to develop evidence-based policies and create pathways to achieve long-term emissions goals. It sets out a range of four trajectories for the kinds of changes that could occur, ranging from business as usual to high ambition. These trajectories are intended to reflect the full range of potential future scenarios that could be observed in this particular sector.
  • The 2050 Calculator and other ICF UK programs play a vital role in enabling countries to set, plan and achieve ambitious climate targets to act with the urgency we need today.

Objectives of KCERT 2050

  • To help users (government, business, academia and individuals) understand the wide range of possible energy pathways available to the country as Kenya develops its transition to green growth.
  • Provide energy quantities for demand, supply, emissions and potential implications for key sectors in Kenya on issues such as import dependency and land requirements.
  • To provide a platform to facilitate policy debate on possible future paths for the Kenyan energy sector and allow for potential policy interventions for further analysis.
  • To help plan for the achievement of Kenya’s updated NDC, which commits to reducing GHG emissions by 32% compared to the business as usual scenario in 2030. To help achieve this goal, the calculator will help Kenya to undertake sophisticated multi-sectoral planning.

Benefits for Kenya

  • The KCERT 2050 will increase the capacity of government departments in Kenya to carry out enhanced analysis of energy systems. The tool enables planners and decision makers to answer important questions, such as how much greenhouse gas emissions can be reduced and how energy demand can be met, with four levels of different effort and respective emission levels over the years.
  • The tool also allows users to check the viability of long-term goals, encouraging the participation of disparate opinions, facts and scientific analysis.
  • It can engage Kenyan energy experts and non-experts in policy-making debate for a more secure, sustainable and affordable energy future for the country; improve the inclusiveness of energy policy assessment, policy formulation and energy planning. The tool also allows users to check the viability of long-term goals, encouraging the participation of disparate opinions, facts and scientific analysis.

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