COVID-19 infection, vaccine risk calculator developed by Australian researchers

In Australia, researchers have developed a tool that determines a person’s risk of contracting COVID-19 and complications from vaccines.

The Non-profit Immunization Coalition collaborated with the University of Queensland, Flinders University, La Trobe University and Queensland University of Technology to create the COVID-19 Risk Calculator (CoRiCal) tool.


Users simply enter their age, gender, community transmission and immunization status into the online tool to get their personalized risk calculation. This calculation is based on a modeling framework developed by Professor Colleen Lau and Dr Helen Mayfield of the UQ School of Public Health and Professor QUT Kerrie Mengersen.

UQ virologist Dr Kirsty Short explained that users can, for example, know the odds of getting infected with COVID-19 versus their odds of dying from the disease.

They can also find out their risk of developing an atypical blood clot from any vaccine and compare it to other related risks, like being struck by lightning or winning the lottery, she added.

Currently, the tool is in its pilot phase and will be updated in accordance with the latest health and scientific advice, including risk assessments on Pfizer and Modern vaccines, pre-existing medical conditions such as obesity and diabetes, and long COVID.

Melbourne-based GP Dr Andrew Baird added that the calculator is adaptable for “booster doses, new viral strains, new vaccines, younger age groups, international markets and even for other infectious diseases “.


According to Dr Short, the CoRiCal was designed to help people make informed decisions about vaccinations. Using simple bar charts, the calculator makes it easy to compare people’s risks for different outcomes related to COVID-19 and vaccines, Dr Baird pointed out.

John Litt of Immunization Coalition said he hopes the risk calculator will help GPs save time. “General practitioners spend a lot of time trying to explain the risks of COVID-19 and different vaccines to their patients. A precise, evidence-based, transparent and non-aligned with professional group tool should help general practitioners in their task of facilitating COVID vaccination. for their patients, ”he said.


A similar web tool was recently launched by AI systems developer Deep Longevity in Hong Kong. His The COVID Risk Calculator estimates the survival of a hospitalized COVID-19 patient.

In India, a team of researchers from the Indian Institute of Technology in Bombay and the Australia-based QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute established a classification algorithm to determine if a COVID-19 patient is likely to have severe symptoms.

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